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It seems clear that with the latest disclosure about Iran's nuclear program that, all things beings equal, Iran will be nuclear armed within a few years. It is far too late for sanctions now and the program is sufficiently dispersed in hardened sites to make US or Israeli strikes useless.
So we must switch the discussion to the implications of a nuclear-armed Iran. What does this mean for Europe? What are the implications for the Sunni-Shia relationship in the Arab world? If I were to place bets, I would bet on Saudi Arabia having a secret program right now to make sure that after Iran declares nuclear status, they can follow soon after. Saudi Arabia will not remain passive if Iran is nuclear-armed.
Then there is Israel. I'm sure they must be discussing Iran daily. They may have to simply depend on the reliable "MAD" principle - "Mutually Assured Destruction" to deter Iran from a preemptive strike, if ever the Ayatollahs are tempted.
What do you think?
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With the developments in the last few days, the story about Iran has moved beyond nuclear weapons. The question is now whether the repressive regime will last beyond a few months. I see patterns that are similar to the last days of Ceausescu in Romania and even those of the Shah in...you guessed it, the same Iran. We are told that the regime only enjoys 12%-15% of the people's support - that's why they cannot allow any kind of free elections. The people lnow see that this is a repressive, anti-democratic, and plain malevolent regime that is illegitimate. A small unelected bunch of people who have the right to tell everyone what to do because they are "Grand Poobahs" or Ayatollahs....whatever. They will be overthrown soon because they do not have the support of those who they are in fact oppressing. No wonder Radio Netherlands reports Khamenei is already prepping the aircraft to flee the country when things go bad, as they surely will.
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It seems to now be a matter of WHEN and not IF Iran will get a nuclear weapon. The West appears powerless to stop it. The uprising, which could have changed Iran for the better, has failed. I suspect though, Iran will simply join in the game of deterrence which so many countries play i.e., Mutually Assured Destruction or MAD. It will probably be anticlimactic when Iran does get the weapon.
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I think the bigger picture is how China will shape the world to come. It is clear that Chinese support is a major reason why Iran's efforts have progressed as fast and as far as they have. Not only their direct support, but their constant blocking of meaningful sanctions, and more recently, a fourth round of sanctions.
I think the world where China is the major economic, and eventually military, superpower will be more supportive of repressive regimes around the world, with the US and EU increasingly ineffective in resisting them. To the Chinese, economic matters prevail over human rights, religious worship, and personal freedoms.
The major beneficiaries of China's rise will be the despotic regimes in sub-Saharan Africa, South America, and Asia..perhaps Arab countries too, unless the Uighurs get in the way. We shall see...
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