I think the chances of reunification are very, very slim. A major problem is the 50,000 or so Turks from the mainland who have settled in Northern Cyprus since the Turkish invasion of the island. They form a powerful bloc against reunification, not to mention the Turkish troops who remain on the island.

Any reunification agreement would entail the north to give up land, property and other assets that they took from Greek Cypriots. Although only 16% of the population, they ended up with 40% of the land and much Greek Cypriot land and property. While the current leaders of the two parts of the island (Mr Christofias and Mr Talat) are pro-reunification, elections are forthcoming in which they are likely to be replaced by harder-line leaders.

So in essence, my guess is that Cyprus will remain divided for the foreseeable future and Turkey will never join the EU. Even if Turkey overcomes the hostility of follks like Sarkozy, Greek Cyprus, now an EU member - will veto....